Part 2
Oh the Western Conference….
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I think it’s entirely possible for me to incorrectly pick all 4 matchups. I don’t know if there’s an “easy pick” when all 8 teams have won 50 games.
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ROUND 1:
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Lakers vs Thunder
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On paper, the Thunder are almost everything the Lakers don’t want to face. Here’s a list of things I think you need to beat the Lakers.
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1. a point guard who can score and abuse Derek Fisher
2. a defender who can make Kobe Bryant work to score
3. a second unit with role players, hustle guys, and maybe a veteran or two
4. size to compete with the Lakers’ front court
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Ok so let’s go down the list.
1. Russel Westbrook will destroy Derek Fisher
2. Thabo Sefolosha is an underrated defender and I can totally imagine all the sports analysts saying “Where did this guy come from? He plays great defense” 2 days from now
3. ummm…
4. Big ummm… “UMMM.”
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As much as I would love for the Thunder to shock the world and beat the Lakers, I don’t think they can with guys like Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison as their best post defenders. The Lakers will destroy them on the inside, even if Bynum is in his baby mode.
(Bynum’s baby mode is the stage in his play where he comes back from injury and looks like just got out of high school again. Watching Bynum play is like looking at a tangent graph. He starts out terrible… then he gets really, really good, and then you think “whoa, if he keeps going the Lakers will never lose”, and then he hits an injury (his asymptote) and starts all over. It’s happened every season, and I’m very grateful for it.)
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Make no mistake though, the Thunder will give the Lakers some problems, particularly because the Lakers have been so bad as of late. I think the Thunder have a great shot to win game 1. After that, it’s only going to get tougher.
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Lakers in 6
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Mavs and Spurs
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Wow, I only got through one matchup? This is going to take forever…
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The spurs are scary. They are always around. They just always find a way to win the playoff series, no matter how old/tired you think they are.
Granted, my perception is skewed because they ALWAYS beat the suns.
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Here are my concerns for San Antonio:
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Is Tony Parker going to be in game shape?
Is George Hill going to be in game shape?
Is Tim Duncan going to be in game shape?
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I just don’t know if they’re healthy, and that’s a major problem in the playoffs.
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Another concern: they’ve been way too reliant on Ginobili as of late. The guy’s a great player, but when he’s pretty much your only scorer and carrying the team, I think you’re messing with his role. He’s a perennial 6th man, and I think that’s where he’s most effective and beneficial for his team. Also, I think Shawn Marion is a great defender and will actually give Manu some problems.
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Last concern: Dallas was the best road team (27-14) in the Western conference this year.
San Antonio posted a 21-20 road record, just barely over .500 (second worst of all Western playoff teams.)
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This basically tells me it will be tough for the Spurs to win in Dallas, and not as tough for Dallas to win in San Antonio. Combine that with the fact that Dallas has homecourt, and it just doesn’t look good for the Spurs.
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Also, I don’t want to play the Spurs. Ever.
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Mavs in 6
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Suns vs Blazers
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I feel so terrible for the Blazers. They’ve had injuries to the point that their head coach ruptured his Achille’s tendon scrimmaging with the team because they didn’t have enough able bodies to play 5v5.
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Unfortunately, injuries do happen and it just so happens to benefit my team. The Blazers actually posted a respectable record without Roy this season (including a victory over the Suns), but I don’t think that’ll work in the playoffs.
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Also, Amare Stoudemire has been playing out of his mind lately. With all the injuries to their front court, I don’t think the Blazers will be able to stay with him. Also, Amare has averaged over 9 free throws per game since the All-Star break. That means foul trouble for Aldridge, Camby, and… Juwan Howard?
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The Blazers only have 3 (really 2) credible bigs, and it’s going to hurt them.
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Suns in 5
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Jazz vs Nuggets
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Just heard from ESPN.com that Kirilenko will miss 2 more weeks with a strained calf.
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Before I heard that, I thought Utah would win this series because of all the problems Denver has had and how good Utah was before AK-47 went down.
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Overall, I think Denver is the better team, despite the fact that Karl is battling cancer. Billups is a proven winner and will be able to make Deron Williams work. The Nuggets are still trying to get Kenyon Martin back into game shape, but the Jazz have injuries in both Okur and Boozer. Without AK-47, the Jazz don’t have a defender that can handle Carmelo.
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It’ll be close, but I think a 1st round exit would be a stretch for a team once heralded as the only competition to the Lakers in the west.
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Nuggets in 7
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ROUND 2:
Lakers vs Nuggets
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I can see it all now: George Karl comes back from cancer treatment, his team is suddenly inspired, and the Nuggets defeat the Lakers to avenge their loss last year.
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I don’t know that it’ll happen, but I think this series will be close. Denver has played against the Lakers really well this season. They don’t need to double down low with defenders like Kenyon Martin and Nene and play great team defense when they’re healthy. Their bench will make LA’s bench look silly (sillier than normal).
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A problem with the Nuggets is their road record has been absolutely atrocious. This is really going to hurt against a great home team like LA with homecourt advantage.
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Another problem is they don’t really have that tight defender you need to defend Kobe.
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I think the Nuggets with this one after 7 close games
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Suns vs Mavs
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I think this one depends on whether the Suns get Robin Lopez back. I never thought I’d miss the guy, but Jarron Collins makes Lopez look like Lebron. My goodness, how did Jarron Collins get into the NBA?
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I think these two teams match up really, really well. Plus, there’s tons of sub plots too.
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1. Will Marion finally get back at the Suns for dumping him for Shaq?
2. Will Nash get back at the Mavs for not offering him that long contract?
3. At the beginning of the season, when Mark Cuban was asked about the Suns possibly trading Amare, Cuban responded that it didn’t matter, Phoenix was going nowhere anyways.
4. Matchup of the two best old whiteman pointguards in the NBA. Steve Nash or Jason Kidd?
5. Steve Nash vs his best friend Dirk Nowitzki
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Take a look at these two teams though
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At pointguard: nash vs kidd. Two future hall of fame, pass first point guards
At SG: Richardson vs Butler. Two proven scorers who can create their own shot
at SF: Hill vs Marion. The teams’ role players. Play defense, get hustle points.
at PF: Amare vs Dirk. The teams’ two best scorers
at C: Lopez or Collins (God forbid), vs Haywood or Dampier (God forbid). Defensive big man, protect the basket, get boards + a few easy buckets.
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Bench: Barbosa vs Terry. Two guys you might think are pointguards, but really just come in and provide instant scoring.
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And it goes on. These two teams are built eerily similar position by position. I think this is going to be a great series, but you know I gotta give the edge to my boys.
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Suns in 7
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ROUND 3: Suns vs Nuggets
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The Suns have straight up owned the Nuggets this season. (3-1)
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A lot of people thought the suns should have thrown their last game against Utah so they could play the Nuggets in the first round.
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Yea, the suns would have actually WANTED to play the Nuggets.
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in the first game: the Suns gave up a 13 point lead and ended up losing on a no-call with Nash driving to the hoop down 2 with 28 seconds. They end up losing by 6. The other games? Wins by 12, 16, and 22. Altogether, that’s about an average of +11 winning margin including the loss, and +17 in the 3 victories.
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Suns in 6
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NBA Finals: Cavs vs Suns
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The Cavs will eat us alive. Grant hill guarding Lebron? I don’t think I even want to watch. I don’t even want to think about this series.
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Cavs in 5
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And there you have it, at length, my playoff predictions.
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Ok, I’ll be honest. I’m a bit biased with the Suns in there in the finals. It’s not impossible, but probably more hopeful than realistic. I also hate the Lakers, so I may have short changed them against the Nuggets, but you can’t ignore the trouble LA has had recently. Honestly, it will probably be Dallas (or God forbid, LA) and Cleveland in the finals, with Cleveland still winning in 5. (Against either team)
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Did I say Cleveland is the best team in the NBA?
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I did?
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Ok, just making sure.
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